The impact of the conceptualization of “willingness to speak out in public” on spiral of silence research (1990-2010)

Abstract

Formulated in 1974 by the German sociologist Noelle-Neumann, the spiral of silence is considered one of the most influential theories in the field of communication. However, empirical research has not obtained results allowing its definitive validation as a study tool. This article is based on a doctoral dissertation that – through an analysis of 43 empirical studies published on the theory in indexed English-language journals between 1990 and 2010 – sought to test the extent to which the cause of the spiral of silence’s undefined state is the theory itself or the manner in which it has been researched. From the metavariable “willingness to speak out in public” arises the main problems of the Spiral of Silence: the hypothetical nature of the research carried out and the solely theoretical nature of its prediction of reactions.

KEYWORDS: spiral of silence, Noelle-Neumann, fear of isolation, climate of opinion, communication theories, metatheory.