Adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector of the High Pyrenees and the Aran Valley: Risks and opportunities

Abstract

This study analyses the implications of climate change in agriculture in a mountainous Mediterranean region by modelling crop agro-climatic suitability and comparing the reference climate scenario (1971-2000) with a future scenario (2031-2050). An adaptation strategy is proposed for the 53,535 hectares of farmland in the area under study, in order to diversify agricultural production while maintaining current livestock numbers. The results indicate that, if structural changes are not made, climate change impacts on agriculture in the area might lead to a revenue reduction of 9 %. However, if this threat is used as a driving force for change to promote grazing of alpine grasslands and lower-altitude forests and prairies, nearly half of agricultural lands may be released for new crops that could be targeted to human consumption. This strategy could generate an increase of agricultural gross revenues of about 115 % (rising from €85 million to €181 million).