Escenaris d'ajustament de l'economia catalana enfront de la crisi

Abstract

The aim of this presentation is to contemplate future scenarios for the Catalan economy, taking the year 2009 as our point of departure, while considering the triple perspective of the short, medium and long terms. Our approach places special emphasis on the distinction among the short-term changes, which represent deviations in relation to the long-term growth trend; the structural variations that signify gradual changes in the long-term growth trend; and the relation between cycle and trend. The short term (2010 horizon) was characterised by the recession phase of the cycle and the initial corrections of the imbalances hat had accumulated during the expansion phase (real estate bubble, foreign deficit, excessive debt). Particularly worthy of note was the beginning of the adjustment in the financial sector, along with the decreased difference between savings and investment rates and the intense destruction of jobs. In the medium term (2015 horizon), we can anticipate a phase of recovery and the constitution of a new growth trend, determined by a competitive position in relation to foreign markets. The key to guaranteeing competitiveness is the increase in salaries on average, in proportion to productivity. In the long term (2030 horizon), we can foresee that the Catalan economy will project itself towards the expansion phase of a new economic cycle, hinged on an underlying trend primarily determined by the growth of productivity. In turn, the sustainable increases in long-term productivity depend on the combined accumulation of physical, human, social, technological and institutional capital within the framework of a business fabric rich in synergies and capable of generating increasingly greater yields on the production investment.