La balança fiscal de Catalunya amb el govern central, Resultats de l'estimació de la balança fiscal 1995-1998 i l'evolució 1987-1998

Resum

The authors analyse the magnitude and composition of the fiscal imbalance between Catalonia and the Spanish Central government for 1995-1998, and its evolution since 1986. A flow approach is adopted, whereas the usual incidence hypothesis is followed in alloating tax revenues. The results show a rather stable net contribution of Catalonia to the Spanish Central government in 1998 of 1.3 trillion pesetas (8.37% of Catalan GDP). Calalonia participated in 19.60 % of Central government revenues, but received only 15.03% of expenditures. Catalan population is 15.5% of the Spanish total. Overall, in 1994 constant terms, the evolution of the per capita imbalance rises from 117,133 PTAs. in 1986, to 192,294 PTAs. in 1998. The authors also introduce an explicit way to deal with the effects of Central government budget deficits on fiscal revenues, in computing the financial distortions of the political and economic central role of Madrid, different tax compliance among regions, the impact of inflation differentials, and the evaluation of the social security flows on regional imbalances. In general, the authors favour an estimation of the amount of revenues at the disposal of Catalonia in order to finance its own expenditure, without the mediation of the Central government, but maintaining a single Spanish fiscal system. This approach may force the contribution of Catalonia as any other region to finance the joint expenditures of the Central government, and/or to finance its owm public sector, but in a rather more dear way. As a result, with regard to the financial decentralization system, territorial solidarity and social cohesion is enhanced, at the same time that autonomy and self-governance, in a better way than it is today.